Power Politics Makes the World More Predictable


This increases the likelihood that the leading powers will opt for the use of military force in local and regional conflicts. But at the same time, the interdependent nature of world processes makes the military resolution of conflicts between the leading powers costly and ineffective. As a result, the probability of using force increases, but not in a catastrophic way.
All this gives rise to a new phenomenon, which we call the “festival of provocations.” Essentially, this is a series of episodes in which military force is used by the parties secretly or indirectly through their “proxies”. Another tool of pressure is sanctions and large-scale media campaigns that form political pressure, intimidating the average person.

The most obvious field of strategic competition between the powers remains technology. Three principal techno-economic platforms are taking shape: around the United States, China and Russia. Each of these platforms has sufficient technological groundwork and economic weight to offer its closest partners an ecosystem of products and services that is closed in itself.

Deepening geopolitical frictions are taking place in the context of accelerating climate change, one of the indirect consequences of which is the situation in global healthcare. The novel coronavirus pandemic has become clear evidence of the close interconnection of processes in the field of demography and environment. However, neither climate change, nor the pandemic, in essence, change the fundamental process for international relations  the formation of a new balance of power and a polycentric order.

We dare to say that the dominance of power politics in this new international environment makes the world more predictable. There is no longer any ambiguity regarding the evolution of the international system. Moreover, in some situations, power politics can play a constructive role. So, in Eurasia, conditions are being shaped the formation of an extensive Eurasian concert, analogous to the European concert of the early 19th century. The largest and most influential powers of the continent take part in this concert: Russia, China, India, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and others, which compete for influence and mutually restrain each other in many instances. Moreover, the relations of most of them are based on the recognition of mutual interests, relations of equality and non-interference in internal affairs. At least, it is these conditions, based on the tradition of political realism, that are seen in most of the continents capitals as a starting-off point for reaching a compromise.
It is noteworthy that Russia, which is an exemplary realist in foreign policy, participates in the formation of such relations not only in Eurasia, but also in the world as a whole.

It is symbolic that during the Victory Parade in Moscow on 24 June 2020 to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the victory over Nazism, military units from and Azerbaijan, India and China marched in one formation. This, like nothing else, underlines the viability of a realistic approach to assess the international situation in conflict-stricken regions of the world. So, power politics, amid conditions where there are equal opportunities for opponents, makes the world not only predictable, but also more stable.

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